The Smell Test

The administration seems to be counting on the fact that most Americans (or for that matter, most members of government) don't know the difference between Sunnis and Shi'a. Recent news stories have the administration claiming that Iran is providing arms to Shi'ite extremists to kill Americans. But who are we fighting in Iraq?

I'll admit that it's hard to tell who's on which side in the quaqmire that is Iraq; toppling Saddam Hussein created a power vacuum, and there are multiple groups trying to fill various parts of it. But the insurgency, those "dead-enders" in their "last throes", as our Vice President has called them, are Sunni. Saddam Hussein and his supporters, the Ba'athists, were Sunni. There's little doubt that Iran would prefer a Shi'ite government in Iraq; it was obvious before this little adventure began that the most likely outcome was that Iran would gain more influence in Iraq. The current government in Iraq is led by a Shiite faction, who are supposedly our allies, the ones we're trying to get to stand up so we can stand down.

It wouldn't be surprising if Iran were arming one or more of the Shiite factions, and I'm sure that Iran wants the US to leave Iraq. But if any country in the Middle East is supplying explosive devices and money and arms that are killing Americans, it's more than likely Saudi Arabia. You remember Saudi Arabia, don't you? The majority of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudis.

A significant part of the reason that the Middle East is such a mess is that Western powers have never bothered to learn anything about the distinctions among Middle Easterners. The current administration seems determined to just blow the whole place up, and hope that the result is more friendly to the US and keeps the oil flowing to us and not China. In addition to being immoral, such a strategy seems unlikely to actually win us any friends in that part of the world.