In the lead-up to the Iraq War, one question that was never answered adequately was, “yeah, but then what?” Yes, there was little doubt that the US could go in and topple Saddam Hussein, but then what? Now, we know that question wasn’t adequately answer not because there was some super-secret plan, but because there was no plan. There was evidently an assumption that if we just got rid of Hussein, everybody would be so happy and delighted that we’d be hailed as liberators and democracy would just spring up out of nothing.
It’s mind-boggling to me that anybody could have ever believed that we’d be hailed as liberators. Let’s see, the dominant superpower in the world comes in and decides to radically change your entire way of life; oh yeah, that’s always gone over well in history.
I was opposed to the Iraq War for two reasons: the lack of an articulated plan for what happened after Hussein, and the lack of compelling evidence that Iraq was connected to the 9/11 attacks. I’m also dubious of the “fight them over there, so they can’t fight us over here” theory; I don’t see how that can work against terrorism. However, once we went in, I felt we had an obligation to stay there long enough to create a stable situation.
It’s now become clear that we can not create a stable situation. Whether that’s because of lack of troops, an inability to win the “hearts and minds” of the Iraqis, perceptions that Iraq reconstruction is mostly a financial boondoggle for Halliburton and the like, or some other reason, we seem to be part of the problem, not part of the solution. Civil war in Iraq seems inevitable at this point, and I don’t think US troops can stop it.
Civil war should not be a surprising outcome. Countries with arbitrary borders drawn by outside powers without regard to the makeup of the resulting country aren’t likely to escape civil war at some point, whether it’s when the colonial power leaves or when the strongarm dictator is toppled. Countries seldom move from strongarm dictators to democracy smoothly, either, regardless of ethnic tensions.
At best, our continued presence in Iraq can only delay the inevitable. We can’t sustain the current troop level in Iraq indefinitely; it’s too big a strain on our resources, and too limiting of our options in other global conflicts. It isn’t making us safer, it’s pulling money away from domestic programs which might make us safer, and it’s not creating an ally in the Middle East. It’s time to face the obvious, and pull the troops out. A staged withdrawal of troops is probably the best we can do to minimize the chaos.
I still believe we have an obligation to Iraq, but we can’t meet that obligation with troops. Bring them home.